Marking this important moment in history on my blog.Last week we had humanoid robots setting new marathon records (power/speed) and beating professional ping pong players (dexterity/reflex).

We have noted important AI moments in the past like IBM defeating a chess grandmaster in 1997, Google defeating Go in 2015, and OpenAI passing the Turing Test in 2025.

Well, today we have 20 different AI models (LLMs) that are smarter than the average human (ranked as 100 on this chart).

More importantly, we now have 11 models running beyond genius level (130 on this chart) according to Mensa Norway.

Futurist Ray Kurzweil predicted that by 2029, computers will achieve human-level intelligence, passing a valid Turing test (already happened last year), marking the arrival of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI).

He expects this AI to possess human-level cognitive capabilities, leading to significant human-machine integration and the start of a technological/biological singularity by 2045.

He may have been too conservative on this forecast by at least 15 years.

A humanoid robot just surpassed the human world record (in half-marathon) by 7 minutes.Having worked through 32 years (and living through 53 years) of the technology industry's growth, it always amazes me what it feels like "in the moment" versus the way we wax poetic about it 20 years later.

We all know those moments.

When a young Bill Gates thought every home will have a PC, and the IBM people in the same meeting felt like the total opportunity was 10,000 hobbyists.

When a young Jeff Bezos wondered what to do with tech infrastructure they had to build for their busiest day (but sits idle for the rest of the year), and magazines start making fun of him on the front cover.

Here is the deal.

The first PC was VERY limited. But it did have slots, bays, and ports that enabled innovators and entrepreneurs to build trillions of dollars of value in the future (Thanks Steve Wozniak for winning this battle over the other Steve).

The first iPhone was VERY limited. But it did have a future vision of what an App Store could do and unleashed millions of inventive minds into the ecosystem.

The same criticism came of early LLMs.

They hallucinate. They can't be trusted. It is a consumer noveltly.

Then an LLM passed the legal bar exam (bottom 10%). Six months later it passed (top 10% - Harvard/Yale level). And then 6 months later it was writing, grading, and proctoring the exam for humans.

All in 12 months.

We have difficulty in projecting what fast growing technologies will become. Bill Gates said in 1996: "We overestimate the first 2 years, and underestimate the first 10".

So here we are with humanoid robots. They are clunky, they look funny, their fingers don't have the dexterity.

Until they do.

--> Last year, humanoid robots finished the half-marathon for the first time. The result? Twice as long as the human winner. It was funny to watch.

--> This year? They set a new world record by a staggering 7 minutes.

--> Next year? They will probably finish a half marathon in 5 to 10 minutes total - the race will have to move to a Formula One track to facilitate.

Future:

The world has been built (for thousands of years) by humans FOR humans. The idea that we need hundreds of "smart devices" in our lives may turn into the fact that we only need a very few - shaped as humans and as capable (both physically & intellectually).

Examples:

- Your smart vacuum (sorry iRobot on bankruptcy), doesn't need to be smart when a humanoid robot can use a dust pan and mop.

- Your fancy smart cat litter box can go back to the normal one when a humanoid robot cleans it after every use.

- Your car with tens of thousands of dollars in sensors, cameras, and Lidar can go back to normal when a humanoid robot can take the wheel (with safety already 10X distracted humans).

- Even as simple as your smart thermostat. It can go back to the old dial when humanoid robots (which will be in every home within 20 years) can turn the dial with much better accuracy.

China’s 🇨🇳 control over critical minerals is the most underappreciated force reshaping the technology industry

China’s 🇨🇳 control over critical minerals is the most underappreciated force reshaping the technology and geopolitics landscape—and it impacts every part of the $5.3 trillion technology industry.

40 years ago, China was largely dismissed as a low-cost manufacturing hub. Today, it is the backbone of the world’s clean energy transition and a dominant force in every electronics supply chain, not only as the world’s factory but as the gatekeeper of the foundational elements powering modern tech.

China’s industrial policy quietly shifted from being a buyer of raw materials to becoming the world’s top producer and processor. 

As the the western world was mass-consuming low cost products, we were funding this stealth (and brilliant) transformation.

China integrated mining, refining, and manufacturing into a fully coordinated national strategy. Through long-term infrastructure investments, joint ventures, and outright ownership of mines across Africa, South America, and Asia, China secured access to over 60% of global rare earth production and built processing facilities that now handle more than 80% of the world’s output.

Critical minerals like lithium, cobalt, nickel, and rare earth elements used in EV batteries, wind turbines, semiconductors, AI servers, 5G telco, and defense systems all flow through Chinese-controlled supply chains. 

At a partner ecosystem level, this presents both risk and opportunity. Supply chain diversification, onshore production, and mineral recycling—all now high strategic priorities among Western governments—open new pathways for distributors, integrators, and MSPs to help clients assess and mitigate risk. 

The same intelligence models partners have adopted for SaaS visibility and cybersecurity are now needed for physical supply chain transparency.

Just as China redefined itself from a manufacturing economy to a mineral-backed superpower, our industry must evolve from short-term technology transactions to ecosystem-driven strategic advisory. 

The winners will be those who see beyond the product and into the raw minerals powering the infrastructure behind powerful platforms.

Civil War

There are two ways the United States could fail and both are internal.

The grand experiment - America's unique attempt to establish and sustain a republic and democracy based on principles of liberty and popular sovereignty - is at critical risk of a civil war triggered by either poor vs. rich or left vs. right.

The external threat isn't military-driven but sowing division through malign influence campaigns. According to the U.S. Intelligence Community and Department of Homeland Security, major threats include Russia, China, and Iran. Their tactics exploit existing societal frictions to undermine trust in institutions, amplify discord, and interfere in democratic processes.

First, growing income inequality has played a significant role in the decline and collapse of great empires throughout history by fueling political instability, fostering resentment among the poor, and creating a decadent and less resilient elite. Research comparing the Roman and Han Chinese empires, for example, found that high inequality increased the potential for political instability that ultimately contributed to their downfalls.

Almost on every measure, we are marching towards this.

Second, happening quicker than the first, is the increasing division between the left and the right on the political spectrum. By nature, humans are tribal and are wired for survival with the need for packs or teams. The "us vs. them" is evolutionary and deeply rooted in our psychology.

Overriding these divisions over the first 200 years in the U.S. has been bipartisan leadership driving a deep sense of patriotism for the country over anything else. Whether it was the World Wars or yesterday's 24th anniversary of 9/11, a large and diverse collection of different states, races, and religions stayed true to this overriding pride and protection of the whole.

I created the visual below to help me think about this moment in history.

America has always had that "80% in the middle" of the bell curve - the neighbors, family, friends, and industry colleagues that wanted a better country but had different (but civil) opinions on how to achieve. It was ok to be a socially-minded conservative or a fiscally-minded liberal. It was ok to independently choose a side on over 100 of the most pressing issues of the day and not have those defined for us based on the team we chose.

Interestingly enough, large institutions such as government, courts, religion, and traditional media reinforced (and protected) the bell curve.

Sowing division and lowering trust in these institutions combined with the rise of the internet (1995) and social media (2006) has set us on a course to civil war. The world has never had millions of communication channels amplifying voices from every part of society.

The emergency issue is that to cut through this noise and clutter, algorithms have amplified the most extreme voices (on both sides) and commercialized them. American society is pretty numb to the barrage of information hitting us everyday and only engages when something is extreme enough to warrant a response. Reasonable discord in the middle (the 80%) is invisible.

We all recognize and can rank people around us (and ourselves) into each slice of this bell curve.

What do we do?

First, we need to protect each other and report anyone that falls (or is at risk of falling) off either edge of the curve.

Second, we need to recognize that we are ALL being manipulated. The media around us is driven off of clicks and engagement - it is sending them towards the edges to get noticed and compensated.

Tribal nature is pulling us with them.

Third, understand that we are making the job of people trying to end this empire easy. Sowing division is easy when something extreme gets painted as "them".

This week is a perfect example with the assassination of Charlie Kirk. Millions of communication channels quickly became a cesspool of division and hate. Hundreds of my connections (on both sides and in different slices) have used the word "they or them" in their outrage.

These aren't woke pronouns - it is the seed of civil war.

Fourth, we need to obviously find common ground. This is where the 80% of the bell curve can disagree, knowing that the source of that friction is for a better country. Where we can identify and act (together) on the growing fringes and protect each other at the outer edge.

This is the tragic irony of what happened this week. Charlie is someone who successfully triggered some of these "extreme" algorithms (regardless of whether that was in or out of context, the result was the same) but believed in civil public discourse and wasn't afraid to engage and debate.

Many were quick to assign motive and blame before the shooter was even in custody because it had to be "them". Others were quick to support the horrific narrative that somehow he deserved to be killed.

We never got to see what the middle of America thought as we were invisible.

Milestone Alert! Today I visit my 100th country.

Back in 2010, I wrote a blog titled "100 Country Rollerblades and Red Bull Tour". It was the start of a travel story and a manifestation to reach all four corners of the planet. For those of you in marketing, that blog went viral and spent several years on Page 1 of Google SEO for both keywords Rollerblades and Red Bull!

In my first 35 years, I had traveled to 9 countries. It would take 16 more years to reach the next 91! It also included seeing all 7 continents, 7 wonders of the world, 50 States (only missing New Mexico now), and 10 Canadian Provinces.

Since 2014, it has also included traveling with two children to all 7 continents including Antarctica. I should also mention that Michelle and I work full-time in demanding jobs and only 3-4 weeks per year are available to travel.

Having a sense of adventure and love for travel is different than reaching a target that only a few thousand people in history have achieved. It was actually inspired by the Bucket List movie from 2007 with Jack Nicholson and Morgan Freeman. It reinforced the perils of waiting to retirement to really start living. Life tends to get in the way of living with families and careers take over most of our focus.

On the topic of personal bucket lists, here are 4 others beyond this 100 travel goal.

Why 100 countries?

Simple. I wanted it to be remarkable, challenging, but yet attainable. Knowing that out of 193 countries recognized by the United Nations (Vatican City makes 194) dozens of countries are in perpetual war (civil or otherwise), new threats pop up every few months, and a large number are small islands spread around the world, I chose a round number representing half the world.

Here is how the 100 looks on a map:

(This is an iPhone app called Been if you want to create your own travel map)

A bit more complicated than just 100 countries...

Being an industry analyst means there is more to planning travel than just a round number. I downloaded all 193 countries and sorted them by land mass and population. In terms of targeting where to go next, we tend to look at size and global importance of the destination.

While 100 countries represents 52% of the world's countries, it represents 79% of the world's population and 71% of the land mass. Seeing where 8 out of 10 people live (8.1 billion and counting) is a pretty cool achievement!

100		52%	78.62%	71.15%
# of Countries		Of countries visited	Population	Land Mass
x	🇨🇳	China	1,345,610,000	9,640,821
x	🇮🇳	India	1,210,193,422	3,287,240
x	🇺🇸	United States	311,950,000	9,826,675
x	🇮🇩	Indonesia	237,556,363	1,904,569
x	🇧🇷	Brazil	195,112,055	8,514,877
x	🇷🇺	Russia	141,927,297	17,098,242
x	🇯🇵	Japan	127,387,000	377,873
x	🇲🇽	Mexico	107,550,697	1,958,201
x	🇵🇭	Philippines	92,226,600	300,076
x	🇻🇳	Vietnam	85,789,573	331,689
x	🇩🇪	Germany	81,757,600	357,022
x	🇪🇬	Egypt	80,143,443	1,001,449
x	🇹🇷	Turkey	77,804,122	783,562
x	🇨🇩	Democratic Republic of the Congo	68,692,542	2,344,858
x	🇹🇭	Thailand	64,232,760	513,115
x	🇫🇷	France	62,793,432	551,500
x	🇬🇧	United Kingdom	62,041,708	243,610
x	🇮🇹	Italy	60,200,060	301,318
x	🇿🇦	South Africa	50,586,757	1,221,037
x	🇰🇷	South Korea	48,456,369	99,538
x	🇺🇦	Ukraine	46,936,000	603,700
x	🇪🇸	Spain	46,087,170	506,030
x	🇨🇴	Colombia	46,083,384	1,138,914
x	🇹🇿	Tanzania	43,739,000	945,087
x	🇦🇷	Argentina	40,091,359	2,780,400
x	🇰🇪	Kenya	39,802,000	580,367
x	🇵🇱	Poland	38,163,895	312,685
x	🇨🇦	Canada	33,740,000	9,984,670
x	🇺🇬	Uganda	32,710,000	241,038
x	🇲🇦	Morocco	32,223,787	446,550
x	🇵🇪	Peru	29,461,933	1,285,216
x	🇳🇵	Nepal	29,331,000	147,181
x	🇲🇾	Malaysia	28,306,700	329,847
x	🇹🇼	Taiwan	23,069,345	35,980
x	🇲🇿	Mozambique	22,894,000	801,590
x	🇦🇺	Australia	22,828,648	7,682,300
x	🇷🇴	Romania	21,466,174	238,391
x	🇲🇬	Madagascar	20,653,556	587,041
x	🇱🇰	Sri Lanka	20,238,000	65,610
x	🇨🇱	Chile	17,277,793	756,096
x	🇳🇱	Netherlands	16,690,000	41,526
x	🇰🇭	Cambodia	14,805,000	181,035
x	🇿🇼	Zimbabwe	13,009,530	390,757
x	🇨🇺	Cuba	11,306,183	109,886
x	🇬🇷	Greece	11,306,183	131,957
x	🇧🇪	Belgium	10,827,519	30,528
x	🇵🇹	Portugal	10,636,888	92,391
x	🇨🇿	Czech Republic	10,532,770	78,866
x	🇩🇴	Dominican Republic	10,090,000	48,671
x	Haiti	Haiti	10,033,000	27,750
x	🇭🇺	Hungary	10,013,628	93,032
x	🇷🇼	Rwanda	9,998,000	26,338
x	🇧🇾	Belarus	9,755,106	207,600
x	🇸🇪	Sweden	9,366,092	449,964
x	🇦🇹	Austria	8,372,930	83,858
x	🇷🇸	Serbia (excluding Kosovo)	7,800,000	77,474
x	🇨🇭	Switzerland	7,761,800	41,284
x	🇮🇱	Israel	7,697,600	20,770
x	🇭🇳	Honduras	7,466,000	112,492
x	🇭🇰	Hong Kong	7,003,700	1,104
x	🇯🇴	Jordan	6,316,000	89,342
x	🇩🇰	Denmark	5,532,531	43,094
x	🇸🇰	Slovakia	5,424,057	49,033
x	🇫🇮	Finland	5,389,683	338,145
x	🇸🇬	Singapore	5,076,700	710.2
x	🇳🇴	Norway	4,936,900	385,155
x	🇦🇪	United Arab Emirates	4,599,000	83,600
x	🇮🇪	Ireland	4,581,269	70,273
x	🇨🇷	Costa Rica	4,579,000	51,100
x	🇭🇷	Croatia	4,443,000	56,538
x	🇳🇿	New Zealand	4,315,800	270,534
x	🇵🇸	Palestinian territories	4,100,000	6,020
x	🇵🇷	Puerto Rico (US)	3,982,000	8,875
x	🇧🇦	Bosnia and Herzegovina	3,843,126	51,129
x	🇺🇾	Uruguay	3,463,197	175,016
x	🇵🇦	Panama	3,454,000	75,517
x	🇦🇱	Albania	3,195,000	28,748
x	🇱🇹	Lithuania	3,053,800	65,300
x	🇯🇲	Jamaica	2,719,000	10,991
x	🇱🇻	Latvia	2,248,961	64,600
x	🇳🇦	Namibia	2,171,000	824,292
x	🇸🇮	Slovenia	2,079,344	20,256
x	🇱🇸	Lesotho	2,067,000	30,355
x	🇧🇼	Botswana	1,950,000	581,730
x	🇶🇦	Qatar	1,409,000	11,000
x	🇪🇪	Estonia	1,340,021	45,100
x	🇸🇿	Swaziland	1,185,000	17,364
x	🇫🇯	Fiji	849,000	18,274
x	🇲🇪	Montenegro	630,548	14,026
x	🇲🇴	Macau (China)	541,200	29.2
x	🇱🇺	Luxembourg	502,207	2,586
x	🇧🇸	The Bahamas	342,000	13,878
x	🇧🇿	Belize	322,100	23,000
x	🇮🇸	Iceland	318,452	103,000
x	🇻🇺	Vanuatu	240,000	12,189
x	🇦🇼	Aruba (Netherlands)	107,000	193
x	🇰🇾	Cayman Islands (UK)	56,000	264
x	🇲🇨	Monaco	33,000	1.95
x	🇬🇮	Gibraltar (UK)	31,000	6.8
x	🇻🇦	Vatican City	826	0.44

Travel timeline

1. North America (1972-80) - living in Canada and the United States, and travelling several times to Mexico allowed me to complete the continent (and a ton of land mass) early in life.

2. UK & France (1996)

3. Portugal & Spain driving tour (2002)

4. Bahamas, Cuba via vacations (2003-04)

5. Greece (2008) - including Athens, Mykonos and Santorini.

6. 13-country driving & rollerblade tour across Europe starting in Germany, then circling through Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, France, Switzerland, Italy, Slovenia, Slovakia, Austria, Hungary, Poland & Czech Republic (2008)

7. China (2009) - including rollerblading through Beijing, Shanghai, Hong Kong & Macau.

8. Italy (2009) - trip with my mom.

9. South America tour - including rollerblading through Argentina, Uruguay & Brazil - both Rio and Sao Paulo (2010)

10. Caribbean cruise - Haiti, Jamaica, Cayman Islands, Cozumel (2010)

11. 7-country South Africa driving and rollerblade tour - Johannesburg, Cape Town, Lesotho, Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Mozambique & Swaziland (2010)

12. 5-country Scandinavian tour with Michelle (first trip together!) - Iceland, Denmark, Sweden, Norway & Finland (2011)

13. 7-country SE Asia tour with Michelle - Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Cambodia, Thailand, Philippines & Singapore (2011)

14. 7-country ex-USSR tour with Michelle - Russia (both Moscow & St. Petersburg), Belarus, Ukraine, Poland, Estonia, Latvia & Lithuania (2012)

15. Down-under driving tour with Michelle - Australia & New Zealand (2012)

16. "Wonders of the world" honeymoon with Michelle! - Morocco, Egypt (Cairo & Luxor), Sri Lanka, India (Mumbai, Delhi, & Taj Mahal) & Nepal (Mount Everest) (2013)

17. Asia tour with Michelle and Brooklyn on Mount Fuji for her first birthday - including Japan, Taiwan, South Korea (2015)

18. A very long drive through the entire countries of Ireland, England, Scotland with Michelle, Brooklyn, and Cali, tracing my family roots back to Nottinghamshire, England and Inverness, Scotland. (2016)

19. A beautiful tour down under to Australia and to the South Pacific to Thailand, Indonesia, Vanuatu, and Fiji with Michelle, Brooklyn, and Cali. (2017)

20. A panoramic cruise to the Panama Canal with stops in Aruba, Colombia, Panama, and Costa Rica with Michelle, Brooklyn, and Cali. (2017)

21. As part of Michelle's MBA from Manhattan College we visited multiple parts of Peru including Machu Picchu and the Amazon rainforest with Brooklyn, and Cali. (2018)

22. An epic 15-country journey on the way to Australia for a speech, including new country visits to Monaco, Croatia, Bosnia, Montenegro, Albania, Turkey, Israel, Jordan, and Palestine. (2019)

23. Covid stalled our travel for a couple of years but we picked up again by hitting my 7th wonder of the world - Chichen Itza in Mexico (2022). The other 6 were the Taj Mahal (2013), the Colosseum (2009), Machu Picchu (2017), Christ the Redeemer (2010), Petra (2019), and the Great Wall of China (2009).

24. We also hit the Bahamas (Atlantis) in 2022 and then finished the year in epic fashion with an adventure to Antarctica - our 7th continent! We saw Chile and landed in Argentina after the cruise to a newly minted World Cup in soccer. Messi was the world champion and months later would soon land in Miami to play! (2022)

25. We hit the ground running in 2023 with a spring break cruise through the Caribbean - hitting new countries of Honduras and Belize. During summer break we also took an epic cruise to the North Pole (kinda) - Alaska! (2023)

26. The Taylor Swift European driving adventure through London, Amsterdam, Brussels, and Paris. Also included Disney Paris, Harry Potter show in London, and staying at the majestic Port Lympne Reserve "Lion Lodge" in England. (2024)

27. The ultimate 7-country safari through Africa via Qatar, including gorilla trekking in Uganda, quick trips across the borders of Rwanda and Congo, then safaris through the Serengeti in Tanzania and Masai Mara in Kenya, and finishing with country #100 in Madagascar! (2024)

Where next?

As I mentioned earlier, many countries of the world are off-limits to travel due to safety. This can change often as we learned the day we landed in Egypt during the Arab Spring. Here are some thoughts...

- Eastern Caribbean cruise - Dominican Republic, Anguilla, Antigua and Barbuda, Montserrat, Guadeloupe, Martinique, St Lucia, Barbados, St Vincent, Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago & Aruba.

- Second SE Asia tour - Bangladesh, Bhutan, Myanmar & Laos

- Western Africa tour

- ex-USSR "Stan" tour

Even though the Middle East and much of Africa have been in a constant state of turmoil for centuries, I do hope in my lifetime to see these countries.

The next generation of travel will also involve sailing the blue ocean on a catamaran. More on that here. 

Ending the journey at 194 countries isn't a specific goal but it would be a happy coincidence!

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Read some other stories from A Few Thoughts - Jay McBain:

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My Life Story - Have you ever thought about the impact of big decisions that you made in your life? How about the small ones or the ones made for you? How would have your life turned out if things went the other way?

My Love Story - Michelle and met on October 15, 2010 in a serendipitous way. We were both part of a charity in Raleigh, NC and one night at a dinner struck up a conversation about many things - including our love of travel.

My Housing Story - After 13 moves and stops in three Canadian Provinces and three U.S. States, here is my journey in pictures from the Northwest to the Southeast of North America.

My Car Story - I have the dubious honor of getting speeding tickets on all 6 driveable continents - lucky that there are no cars in Antarctica! Did I ever tell you the time I passed the Polizia in Italy with my mom?

My Nautical Story - I am pretty sure the love of water started in 1972 when I was six weeks old and my grandparents Bob and Dona McBain retired to Shuswap, British Columbia, Canada, and built a log cabin.

My Crazy MBA Story - In the summer of 2017, while climbing Machu Picchu, Peru as part of my wife Michelle’s International MBA from Manhattan College, I thought – why not me?

My Hockey Story - As long as I can remember, I have been playing hockey. Over four and a half decades and thousands of games later, I still lace them up a couple times a week, year-round.

My Cycling Story - When the Covid-19 pandemic first took hold in March 2020 we responded quickly as a family - including strict stay at home orders and no outside contact until we could get a handle on the risks. My attention now turned to exercise - and biking across North America (virtually).

My Retirement Story - I have no interest in disconnecting fully from the work that makes me so fulfilled. I could never see myself  in bingo-playing retired life. I want to stay curious, engaged, and adding value past the (very specific) date in 2034 that I am aiming for.

My Christmas Story - Whether traveling to see family, or going to Disney or Hawaii, or simply staying home - the season is packed with memories of family and friends.

My Music Story - My favorite music can be best defined as sad / emotional / multi-level slow music. Oddly, it is opposite of my worldview - which is normally overly-positive and optimistic.

My Movie Story - Oddly enough, I think Pretty Woman made me very interested in business. I named my cat Austin Powers - oh, and yes, "Danger" is his middle name. Our current dog is named August Rush (Auggie Doggy). Movies such as Planes, Trains & Automobiles, Forrest Gump, & National Lampoon's Vacation have become soundtracks to my life.