Initial Review of iPhone 7 Plus

Well, the 24 hour mark has hit since picking up my iPhone 7 Plus 128GB in flat black. Here are my initial thoughts.

Verdict:  Ho-hum

The acquisition process was more painful than normal. I faithfully stayed up to 3AM EST on preorder day and placed order for Michelle's Rose Gold 7 Plus as well as my own in fancy Jet Black Plus. Because the order went through at 3 minutes after 3:00am, the Jet Black was already showing late October for delivery.

Tip to Apple: After screwing up supply planning on the new Gold color a few years back, perhaps you should be more bullish on your customer's quest to get new colors. How about an early order window for all free trade-in contracts to test what the color/feature mix would be?

I was able to change over the order a few days later to a flat black version and secure delivery on the first day at 9:00am, September 16, 2016. Michelle was still out of luck on the Rose Gold into October.

The first major snag came on restore of new phone. After waiting almost an hour in the Apple Store for process to be complete, it failed at 1% with the following unhelpful message:

I decided to try again with an older backup - same thing, after 1 hour it failed at 1% remaining. I updated the phone to iOS 10.0.1 and tried again to no avail.  As a last resort, I followed the bare-metal restore to factory settings via the DFU Mode - also to no avail.

So, I was defeated. Started a new phone and downloaded hundreds of apps and tuned to what I remembered on my old phone. Next time I will back up to iTunes AND iCloud the night before. I lost my health history which seems to be the biggest issue.

After a long day (and night) - it was time to start Saturday fresh with a new phone.

First up: mow the grass while listening to music on headphones. I plugged the the new Lightning dongle adapter and Skull Candy headphones. Everything worked as advertised however I couldn't make out any improvement of digital over analog sound. There was an adverse effect - in 90 minutes of listening, it burned up 30% of my battery. I checked the battery monitor and "Music" was the culprit.

In the analog days, I could listen for hours and barely dent the battery. Does the new digital port have a big weakness?

Side bar: I applaud Apple for getting rid of the analog headphone jack. As an IBM/Lenovo guy for 17 years selling PCs, I do think it takes courage to take away the floppy, CD-ROM, serial and parallel ports, and now the last remaining analog remnant on their products. This was something that the Wintel industry would never do as they were focused on making enterprise clients happy - the consumer was always an afterthought.

Second up: Play with the family on the neighbors slide. This gave me a good chance to put the dual cameras to use. The 2X optical zoom and some of the advanced effects are a real leap forward. The ability to emulate some of the advanced DSLR portrait effects is really cool. Having 2 cameras working independently and having software stitch together the results will change the game for photography moving forward. Watch this space for incredible artistry.

Third up: Go see a Weird Al Yankovic concert and test out low-light settings. Because of the music battery fiasco early in the day, I did have to find a charger for the car ride over to Schenectady however. The video camera worked "at par" with previous phones in this environment. I was hoping for better focusability so the artist wasn't a white-out when a spotlight was on - but I wasn't able to take advantage of the 2 cameras here.

Other observations:

- They are obviously doing the big refresh on the 10 year anniversary with the iPhone 8. This seemed like more of a "S" release. I will call this my iPhone 6SS.

- I like the water resistance to IP67. Not as good as Samsung, but a big step forward for reliability and those occasional rain/boating accidents.

- Because the lower button is now digital and not a physical mechanism, the taptic feedback was cool. Took a number of times to get used to it. Also, to hard reset the phone, you need to hold down Power and Lower Volume buttons instead.

- iOS 10 is a linear improvement over previous versions. I am excited about the Siri integration within apps as well as mapping integrations with 3rd parties. The new Home app is a future win once the cost of IoT devices comes down. I refuse to be a wide early adopter of plastic devices that cost $300 a piece. Homekit is the much-needed industry standard for millions of devices that are coming to market - not an open standard by any means, but at least a popular one.

- Performance wise, I can't tell any difference on the new A10 chipset. Partially because these are not processing devices, the network is the bottleneck. I do like the dual stereo speakers and volume which is much higher than previous.

Conclusion: This is a linear bump to the product line - more of a "S" product than a new model. I will call this my iPhone 6SS Plus until the iPhone 8 comes out with things like wireless charging, edge to edge OLED screens, and more.

Technology reached a tipping point this week in America

This brutal week in America had a number of technology stories buried underneath that mark a significant shift going forward.

The first was the prevalence of live video, particularly by the victims themselves. Over the past few years, we have seen interesting things with cell phone footage and dash cams - but it has all been recorded and transferred after the fact. We are now living in realtime, and this changes everything from who owns the news (Facebook) to how we can handle it psychologically. 

The second technology story was the killing of the Dallas police sniper by a bomb carrying robot. This is the first time an American citizen was killed in this way. We have become desensitized to the daily drone killing overseas, but this marks a potential shift in how domestic terrorism will be handled by authorities (think about Orlando and if they could have infiltrated with robots immediately). This isn't Terminator as these robots and drones are human controlled, but changes the game all the same. 

Third, is the power of social media in either starting or stopping another civil war (I can't decide which). We are learning that developing advanced data science around social sentiment will be critical in predicting potential danger zones (think Minority Report). 

Finally, in order to protect ALL citizens, we need to invest in research of a non-lethal, 100% effective device that immediately incapacitates a person. Similar to a stun gun from Star Trek. Tasers are not 100% effective and guns are lethal - we need something in the middle.

What Did I Learn After A Month Of Lifestreaming?

We are living in interesting times. The technology to track every step, minute of sleep, calorie consumed, and heartbeat is literally at our fingertips.

This blog pulls together two of my own stories:

1. Lifestreaming starting at a young age - keeping track of every penny I have ever earned and spent, scanning every document as proof, and digitizing every photo going back generations. More on that story here.

2. After 6 months of owning the Apple Watch, I can now give my official thumbs up on the product. I was hesitant at first, citing 10 reasons on why to buy it and 8 reasons why not to. More on that here.


Tools of the Lifestreaming Trade

First of all, I didn't go nuts on equipment - no blood pressure monitors, wearable cameras, audio recording devices, etc.

What I did use:

Apple iPhone
Apple Watch
Withings WIFI Scale
Sleep++ App
MyNetDiary App

This was sufficient to give me insight into every moment of the day, 24/7. I started on November 1st, and my primary goal was to watch and regulate my sugar intake (a day after Halloween of course).


What I Learned

Working in a computer related job makes it difficult to get to the magical 10,000 step count that every magazine and fitness wearable manufacturer seems to be touting. Other than some family walks and Black Friday shopping, the average is 3,851 for me. That results in 1.84 miles per day.

I use my weekly hockey game as high-intensity exercise. Averaging 96 minutes of aerobic exercise a week keeps me in reasonable shape.

I learned long ago that fitness is scientific. If you can get 20-30 minutes of high intensity workout, 3 times per week, you will be in the top 5th percentile in fitness in North America. This doesn't mean walking or warming up at the gym - it means high heart rate, deep sweat type of working out.

Using the Apple Watch 24/7, I can gauge heart rate every minute of the day. On the days I have hockey you can see spikes up to 200 beats per minute. This is beyond my maximum, but those games have me between 135bpm and 180bpm which is optimal.

I do realize that I am not lifting at the gym which isn't optimal - aerobic and weight training should be combined for optimal metabolism and injury avoidance.

Sleep is a critical component of health. Not getting enough (or getting too much) is not good for you and a simple Sleep++ App combined with my Apple Watch monitored every second of sleep.

I was pleased with the 7 hour 30 minute average but there were some 5 hour ones tucked in there. The quality of sleep was about 95% meaning I only tossed and turned about 20 minutes a night.

I also fall asleep within minutes of hitting the pillow which is great. November had me going to bed, on average, after 1am which is not ideal.

Now for the fun part.

By tracking every meal, every snack, and even every vitamin I take, some interesting results were produced.

I learned that tracking every bite ended up putting me on a diet - I only ate one desert in November which was Apple Pie the day after Thanksgiving. My original goal was to curb sugar in my diet and that ended up restricting my calories to 1,579 per day.

This intake is too low for a guy my size.

The app further breaks down food into dozens of nutrients and other components. Here is a sample of the daily averages:

The 1,579 calorie average drove 202 Carbs, higher than Atkins would approve of, but significantly lower than my normal. Fat and saturated fat stayed in an acceptable zone and protein was always in a good range.

The real stat I was after was sugar. Consuming 76 grams per day was probably half my normal intake and very difficult to do. In fact, starting my day with an apple, mandarin orange and banana already put me half way there.

The World Health Organization recommends 50 grams of sugar per day and I am not sure how to get there without cutting out fruit.

I am not sure the Withings scale has this completely accurate, but it did show a gradual decline in body fat percentage during the month of November.

The thing that is accurate is weight - take a look at this decline in November driven by a limited sugar / calorie diet with normal exercise:

I ended up losing over 10 pounds in the month. Not ideal as the target should be 1-2 pounds per week maximum. It was definitely interesting to see what a shift in eating would do while keeping other variables constant.

It is a recommendation that experts give - if you want to change behavior, write it down! In this case, technology did the writing down for me and having this as a constant reminder did in fact change almost everything I ate.

The question is whether this is sustainable in the long term. The technology is still a bit manual - having to record food and tell your watch when you are going to work out or sleep begs for human error.

These technologies will get better with time - more predictive and utilizing machine learning. Recording food by UPC code was slick, and there are now services that you can just take a photo of your food and someone else will determine portion size and calorie content.

All in all, a good experiment and I am excited to see wearable technology drive better nutrition and life choices in the future.

iPhone 5 vs. Samsung Galaxy S III

I have had 4 smartphones in the past 52 days - not by choice - here is a summary of my personal experience:

I started with an iPhone 4 with AT&T and ordered the iPhone 5 which was activated on Sept 21.  Like many people, my expectations were sky high on the new phone and it didn't quite live up to the hype.

For example, I was hoping for a longer AND wider screen.  I was hoping for NFC for payments and digital wallet. I was hoping for something that could chop veggies, blend smoothies and write blogs for me automatically.  

I will be interested in how Apple handles the next big announce.  It is not unlike a Presidential debate - lower expectations as far as you can and then meet or exceed them.

One funny story (at least afterward) was the maps.  I arrived in Atlanta and decided to walk from the center of downtown to the Sheraton.  The maps took me for a 1 mile walk in the wrong direction and landed me in the middle of a college campus.  

I used Google maps inside a browser to get me back on track and ended up getting hit by a car.  First time in my life - I was thrown 30 feet down the road!  Anyway, all is well - no injuries or lasting effects - but a lifelong memory about iOS 6 all the same.

Next business trip was to Las Vegas where my room was broken into as I slept.  They stole about $80 in cash and my shiny new iPhone 5.  Again, no injury or lasting effects, but now I was in need of a new phone.

The shortage of iPhone's (no doubt causing a stock price drop for Apple right now) caused me to linger - perhaps for too long - in the AT&T store.  I started looking at the Samsung Galaxy S III and getting excited about the launch of the Galaxy Note 2.

My choices were simple - wait 3 weeks for an iPhone 5 (while using a 90's era flip phone during that time) or get the Samsung Galaxy S III with a 30 day money-back guarantee.

My initial perceptions of the Samsung were:

- big, bold, beautiful screen

- replaceable battery

- memory expansion - I quickly bought a 64GB SD card from Amazon.com

- cool cover that snaps on back and protects the screen

- ability to control Android much better than the homogeneous Apple environment

After about a month, my initial excitement wore off and certain realities set in.  A couple of them would end of being deal breakers:

- battery life was dismal - I was getting 6-7 hours with minimal usage.  3-4 hours with heavier usage.  I figured that all of my apps were polling the network at different times so it really never slept.  Apple seems to have better integration.

- the unit ran warm/hot - I figured because it was always working it kept my pocket noticeably warm.

- button placement - having power and volume at same spot on either side - meant I was always either turning it off or muting it when I didn't want to.  To push a button you need to put leverage on the opposite side, which didn't work - especially on this larger device.

- Messaging, phone and voicemail are not integrated - I was forced to run the AT&T app for voicemail which doesn't have a good notification engine.  Text messages were not shown on the screen and I ended up missing calls and texts.  Unacceptable for business.

- Android lacks unity and integration.  I felt I was using a PC from the 90's with a bunch of shareware loaded.  Taking a picture, then switching apps to look at it and then switching again to do something with the picture didn't make sense.

- Camera, while the specs are the same, isn't on par with Apple.  The quality of the pictures was lower and the panorama didn't work as well.  It was faster however.

- Typing and type-ahead was frustrating.  Apple is frustrating at times as well, but the Android keyboard was worse in terms of spelling, suggestions and corrections.

- I got a sense that app developers were going Apple first with new features and ease of use.  I got a sense most of my apps were n-1.

- Widgets were nice - getting real-time weather, sports, news, music, etc. was a nice touch without having to go into app.  I bet Apple will have this in iOS 7.

With 3 days left on my 30 day guarantee I was left with 2 choices:

1.  Go back to iPhone 5 (now in stock)

2.  Upgrade to Galaxy Note 2

I chose to go back to iPhone 5 because of the issues above.  While the Galaxy Note 2 with a huge 5.5 inch screen and stylus would have been perfect for me - none of the above issues from the Galaxy S III were properly addressed.

Upgrading from Android Ice Cream Sandwich to Jelly Bean is mostly a cosmetic one and doesn't fix some of the core integration issues that I had.

So, that is my story.  4 phones in 52 days and I have made a final decision - Apple.  Of course, I will be looking to upgrade next year when Apple announces the iPhone 5w.  That will be a wide version with a 4.8" screen similar to the Galaxy S III.  

It could have a quad core processor, NFC and more memory - but the main thing will be to fill in the iPhone narrow, iPhone wide, iPad mini to iPad regular product line.  

(Pure speculation of course, I don't know anything more than you do!)

Why Mobility Could One Day Save Your Life (and Business)

By: Jay McBain

One of the most exciting areas in healthcare is the emergence of new telemedicine technologies.  The use of long-distance video and data hookups linking remote community hospitals with specialists in large centers is saving lives.  In fact, recent studies have shown that telemedicine can provide the same level of care as having everyone in the same room.

New technologies are being introduced that are significantly improving the quantity and quality of patient outcomes.  Adding to this, a new level of specialization is emerging, allowing a much broader application of these technologies:

Telecardiology                                  Telepsychiatry                                Teleradiology

Telepathology                                   Teledermatology                             Teledentistry

Telesurgery                                       Teletrauma                                     Telerehabilitation

Telepharmacy                                   Telenursing                                     Telestroke

Here are some key trends driving new possibilities and challenges in remote healthcare:

Mobility – We are currently experiencing the first phase of pervasive computing, where billions of people will be leveraging trillions of devices and sensors.  The surge of smartphones and tablets, combined with the saturation of laptops, is driving a global phenomenon where society is connected all the time, regardless of location.  Thousands of new mobility products are emerging such as the connected automobile, refrigerators, glass surfaces right down to WiFi enabled toothbrushes.  Hundreds of WiFi enabled medical device categories have also emerged from simple weight scales, blood pressure monitors to more complex remote diagnostic equipment.

Ubiquitous Connectivity – One of the main limitations of early telemedicine solutions was the cost/complexity of obtaining quality bandwidth.  According to the World Bank, over 75% of the world’s population now has access to cell phones with over 6 billion devices now in use.  These cell networks are steadily improving and the majority of them now support seamless video across broadband level speeds.

Cloud Computing – The transition of key healthcare applications into the cloud has been growing steadily over the past few years.  It got a relatively slow start due to factors such as country specific regulations, fears of patient record security as well as industry demographics.  Applications are becoming smarter as more critical information is shared and more accessible as mobility and connectivity are driving more use cases.

Demographics – Doctors entering the system now, the so-called “millennials”, were born into the PC generation and have likely carried a mobile phone for over half their lives.  In fact, a recent study reported 70% of younger doctors report they use their smartphone clinically.  Healthcare will continue the virtual trend as baby boomer doctors retire and new generations of technology inclined doctors take their place. 

Consumerization – With the growth of consumer devices for self-diagnosis and treatment, combined with the proliferation of personal social networks, a number of potential pitfalls could arise in delivering telemedicine.  Imagine diagnosing a patient in 140 characters over Twitter or an impromptu Skype session dealing with sensitive medical issues.  While this may seem insecure and ineffective, consumer behavior may demand the health industry explore these mediums.

At the speed these new technologies are driving telemedicine, there remains significant barriers to adoption in emergency and critical care units. One major barrier is the regulatory challenges related to the difficulty and cost of obtaining licensure across multiple states, malpractice protection and privileges at multiple facilities. 

Another barrier is the lack of acceptance and reimbursement by government payers and some commercial insurance carriers creating a major financial barrier, which places the investment burden squarely upon the hospital or healthcare system.  Finally, cultural barriers exist driving a lack of desire of some doctors to adapt clinical paradigms for telemedicine applications.

How do Technology Providers take advantage of these trends?

The future of healthcare will be very personal and in real-time.  Facilities will need to be connected with the latest video, audio and networking technologies to enable specialists to connect with their patients immediately and deliver the quality necessary to improve outcomes. 

Health professionals will need to be armed with these tools regardless of their location.  Telemedicine will evolve from point to point connections across facilities to person to person across pervasive devices.  The doctor may be in his car while the patient could be out in the middle of a farm field – with other specialists and local emergency response teams all listening in.

The opportunities around consulting, integration, technology deployment, remote management, industry compliance management and service will grow significantly over the next 5 years.  Understanding industry and technology trends and being able to deliver the services, hardware and software to enable specialized solutions will be the key.

Will HDBaseT Replace HDMI in Healthcare?

HDBaseT is poised to replace HDMI as the new A/V/control standard in clinics, hospitals and other healthcare environments.

HDBaseT technology runs over standard Cat5e/6 cable and implements something it calls 5Play, a feature-set that converges full uncompressed HD video, audio, 100BaseT Ethernet, and various control signals. Perhaps the most compelling difference is that it transmits up to 100W of power - enough to drive a 37-inch TV. The inclusion of power within the feature set is particularly applicable to the healthcare market where installers are often burdened by the requirement for proximity to an outlet.

Another benefit is that it can extend up to 100 meters passively. HDBaseT has the bandwidth to support the highest video resolutions such as full HD 1080p as well as 3D and 2Kx4K formats. It is promising to be the first to provide all-in-one connectivity, making it possible for a single-connector TV to receive power, video/audio, internet, and control signals from the same cable.

Without jumping into too much of a technical discussion, HDBaseT is able to send much more information than HDMI over a set of 8 wires within a standard Cat5e or Cat6 cable because it uses much lower frequency modulated packets. These are not IP packets like you find in Ethernet and are not subjected to typical electromagnetic interference. Thus, the cables can run alongside medical devices and other infrastructure and not suffer signal degradation.

5Play – The future of networking in healthcare?

HDBaseT's protocol allows you to network your displays and other sources, similar to a home data network. The HDBaseT Alliance organization calls this 5Play and they demonstrated healthcare specific applications at the HIMSS (Healthcare Information & Management Systems) conference in February.  Future capabilities include diagnostic and testing machines, creating a new method of testing patients where the technician doesn't have to be in the same room.  This could be a breakthrough in healthcare and increase the efficiency and safety of medical professionals.

HDBaseT healthcare use cases could include display installations in patient rooms, lobbies, triage, waiting areas and more. HDBaseT can also link medical imaging devices such as CT and X-ray scanners to remote monitors, reducing technicians’ exposure to radiation.

The AV industry has become weary of new standards, many of them never hitting the market. HDBaseT took special precautions by founding the group with heavyweights like LG, Samsung, Valens Semiconductor and Sony Pictures and waited to announce and promote the new standard until after the HDBaseT 1.0 specification was finished. Work is already underway on 2.0, but 1.0 is announced and available with products supporting it out of the gate.

HDBaseT does bring a true standard - a unified and simplified protocol - to the market, not just a new cable.

What's Next?

Today, there is a growing abundance of content in the healthcare facility, including video, images and data. As HDTVs and other devices proliferate throughout the industry, the amount of content, and the ability to move it around the facility, becomes more complicated for integrators. The next stage in networking is the ability to control and distribute this content securely and be able to manage it effectively.

HDBaseT does have some weaknesses and needs to planned and managed carefully. Since HDBaseT is IP-based and carries a lot of data intensive information, it can easily overrun network traffic. It is important to isolate the data stream from the video stream which may mean running a local network for AV signals with a bridge to a data network for control and management. Expect commercial level products to come to market that have separate ports for signal transport and data/control transport.  Length of cable is still important for image quality and some legacy clinics and hospitals have challenging cabling environments.

Given the pros and cons, HDBaseT technology is well-positioned to offer a simple solution to meet the healthcare industry’s growing needs and will likely be an important consideration in the years to come.

Billion dollar ideas - 5 of them - Here is number 2

As a futurist, some trends are shaping that will create the next generation of powerful companies, and powerful people - the next billionaires.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=elqpZcykCnM

Billion dollar ideas - 5 of them - Here is number 1

As a futurist, some trends are shaping that will create the next generation of powerful companies, and powerful people - the next billionaires.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J0z5KLzwXsE

Future: Pervasive Computing - 20 Computers You Will Own in 5 Years

A keynote given on future technologies as well as 5 "billion dollar" ideas for entrepreneurs that are ready for prime time. Also, a future look at smart devices that will make up the fabric of everyday communication and social connections.

Future: Pervasive Computing - 20 Computers You Will Own in 5 Years

View more presentations from Jay McBain.

OS/2 Reborn: The Future of Business in the Cloud

Jay McBain, Senior Vice President, Autotask Corporation

First off, to those of you born after 1980, I apologize for the cryptic reference in the title – here is a primer: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Os/2

For the rest of us, a question:

“Beyond the hype and near-religious arguments, what was the one key differentiating feature that OS/2 had that Windows 3.1 did not have back in the day”?

Answer: Multi-threading (as opposed to multi-tasking)

The future of business and communication is rapidly changing with the explosion of devices that are ubiquitously connected within a vast cloud ecosystem. One way to study it is through the lens of a near-infinite number of “threads”.

Looking back is a useful tool in allowing us to visualize the future. From rudimentary language to pictograms, Gutenberg’s printing press, controlled waves and then electronic signals, communication has evolved from one to one, one to many and finally one to potentially all. With some social media vehicles being recorded (for all of eternity) in places like the US Library of Congress, the ability for communication to succeed (from successful transmission to receipt) may span seconds right up to centuries.

Ok, enough preamble. How does this affect business?

Business today works in a series of communication tasks. Better known as meetings, projects, voicemails, to-dos, emails, etc., we are conditioned to move through an increasing number of tasks in a standard work-day. As corporations started to right-size in the 1980’s and 90’s, the remaining employees were required to wear several hats and divide their day into what seemed like an endless amount of additional tasks. Those that could not “multi-task” effectively were outsiders in this environment and their productivity actually declined – as did their job prospects.

What we are witnessing today is the number of tasks are again rising – this time exponentially. The difference is that the tasks look more like micro-tasks – or “threads”. You could argue that social media has kicked off this phase, with 140 character tweets, text messages as well as a plethora of social status updates.

The wiring of a multi-tasker is subtly different than that of a multi-threader. We marvel at children today who can be doing homework while playing a video game, texting their friends, checking Facebook, listening to an iPod, chewing gum and curling their hair. We may think it is inefficient, and they are not producing results, but consider:

- Do you need to have status meetings with your colleagues when you are in constant threaded communication?
- The rigid milestones and dependencies in a project Gantt chart soften when communication is no longer a scarcity
- The inefficiency of formal written letters was replaced by email, which is now being replaced (rightly or wrongly) by poorly spelled and grammatically questionable threaded communication.

I know my current workday now involves a mix of business and personal, through about a dozen different threaded communication vehicles. It is very difficult to mix the threaded and tasked world as they are somewhat incompatible. For example, you go heads down on a task such as a 2 hour meeting, effectively disconnecting you from threads during that time. It is sometimes difficult to re-enter the conversation as you find yourself catching up.

How does this look 5 years from now?

First of all, email will be a relic. Not completely dead, but one of about 100 ways to communicate. Receiving an email will be the equivalent of getting a formal letter in the mail today.

I believe the next technology billionaire will be the person who figures out a simple cloud based hub of all communication.

Here are the attributes:

- End point agnostic. Communication will not be limited to the device you are using. We will each own dozens of connected devices optimized by where you are – in your office, car, bed, boat, or mountain bike, it doesn’t matter.
- Communication customized for your environment. Your devices will have motion detectors, GPS, and cameras to detect how best to deliver content to you. No more texting behind the wheel or dropping your expensive smart phone over the side of the boat.
- The permutations and combinations of how communication is transmitted and received will reach almost infinite levels. For example, a Facebook chat converts to audio and is played through your car radio as that is the best way to manage threads while driving. Your voice response then gets automatically converted to text and shows up back in the Facebook chat window. Neither party is the wiser.
- Finally, a form of “personal controls” will rise in importance. No longer will you have “friends”, but an expertly segmented group of people having specific tiered access to you. Sure, your parents may get 24/7, your friends perhaps till 2AM on a weekend, but colleagues may get cut off at 5pm, depending on your work-life balance.

This communication hub will manage the entire multitude of sources (likely old school sources such as letter mail and faxes as well) and combine that with location aware technology and effective controls to produce the soundtrack of threads in your business and personal life.

Much like OS/2 when it was developed in the 1980’s, your brain works in threads as well. Some autonomic, some not. Managing the next generation of worker in this threaded world is already challenging for many managers – and it will get significantly more challenging as devices, connectivity options and cloud applications continue to multiply.

Not sure I have the answers...but I will forecast that OS/2 will not make a comeback (contrary to the many vocal groups worldwide who are pushing for its code to go open source), as well as forecast that adapting to this new threaded world will take more than 140 characters of education and training!

What comes after Facebook?

Jay McBain, Director, Small and Medium Business, Lenovo Americas
November 11, 2010

As I come back from another large Channel event filled with potential game-changing sessions on cloud, social media and next generation managed services, it got me thinking about the next wave.

What will the “hot” sessions look like in a few years?

A couple of things are certain – we live in a hype society where today’s game changers are increasingly perishable. The traditional business phases (start-up, growth, peak, trough and recovery) are still relevant; however the timeline is narrowing at a pace never before seen.





Fun facts:

- The top 10 in-demand jobs in 2010 did not exist in 2004
- Today’s college student will have 10-14 jobs, by the age of 38 (US Dept of Labor)
- 4 exabytes of unique data will be generated in 2010, more than all of human history combined- The amount of technical information is doubling every 2 years
- We marveled that the internet only took 4 years to reach “mass market”. Facebook took only 2 years, and future technologies will go viral in days, if not hours or minutes.


Here are the four “hot” sessions that I predict for 2013:

1. Re-tool your IT business with Foursquare – If you haven’t looked at location based services closely, you soon will. Internet 1.0 excelled in connecting the world with its breadth and depth. Because of that complexity spawned internet 2.0, which made it social and more accessible.

There is no way that one person can find, decipher and act on the data that exists today (and it is doubling every 2 years), therefore peer networks and communities of like-minded and like-challenged people have naturally connected.

Internet 3.0 will use GPS technology and further narrow the information overload by filtering location. Most of us recognize that our social networks have grown too large and the value of Facebook may have peaked due to the same information overload problem that ended internet 1.0. Local information, curated by trusted sources, will provide the filtering necessary to get the relevant answers to run your business.

What will internet 4.0 look like? Likely another set of filters applied to when location based social networking reaches its breaking point. It will be based on a new technology (probably not invented yet) that will give us the information we need, when we need it and connect us to the relevant people instantaneously.

2. “These kids today” – How to protect your business from a new generation of serial job hoppers. The old rules of HR have become stale and theories on incentives, behavior modification, and retention are dramatically changing. (check out stat above from US Dept of Labor)

With a myriad of sensors, self-reporting devices and location based services, the old time sheet exercise will become a thing of the past. Your staff may be social networked to their customers, carrying on a 24/7 relationship 140 characters at a time. Tracking this customer intimacy will be easy due to new features within your PSA software.

Each time an employee shows up at a client, Foursquare will log the visit. Deskside visits will be self-reported by the device they are working on. Interaction through text, Facebook, Twitter, email and VOIP phone will be captured and reported to the customer. Stickiness will naturally increase with intimacy.

3. Guns for Hire – the next generation of delivering services. The taxi cab is an unlikely metaphor for delivering technical services, however fits the future model. All taxis are not equal in terms of quality, safety, ethics, courtesy or even hygiene, but they all tend to get the job done – moving you from point A to point B. They are all licensed and hold at least a minimal threshold of training/certification from a central authority. Their main differentiator is location – the closest cab wins.

The future of managing technical resources will be similar. Holding base certification, specialties, and security bond (ie. CompTIA), these techs will be commoditized to the point where location is the most important determination of value.

Instead of managing these people directly, you will have access to a broad network of these “taxis” all coordinated through social networking tools and location based GPS technology. Costs go down in a recurring model, benefiting the client as well as the provider.

4. Productivity through enhanced reporting and micropayments. The analytical tools available will become more granular and robust with the combination of these new technologies. The recurring revenue model will evolve to where costs are reported at a micro-level. For example, cost per location check-in, cost per phone call or email, right down to cost per tweet of delivering service.

Understanding future models of brokering cloud solutions, delivering services and pricing models per client touch (vs. by unit or head) and executing within a complex web of interconnected community networks will be critical for business success in 2013 and beyond.

The speed, fluidity and predictability of service delivery will invariably set a new level of client expectations.

The good news for all of us, is that the future points to an increasingly important and essential role for the Channel to play in business. With technical information doubling every two years, regulation and legislation being created at an unprecedented pace in history, and digital convergence and connection across billions of people to trillions of devices, the Channel is poised to lead.

My Al Gore moment…Why Facebook Stories will change everything

Jay McBain
July 24, 2010

First of all, I will not claim to have invented the internet.


What I will claim is that I had a future vision in the late 90’s about the internet growing into an accumulation of all of human knowledge and experience. I called it the “Hierarchy of Wisdom”. In fact, I published a list of rules about the concept which I will paste at the end of this blog post.

Many people heard the story from me back in those days…it went something like this:

“Imagine for a moment that aliens land on earth thousands of years from now. What they find is a post-apocalyptic waste land with scarce remnants of the advanced society which once inhabited it. As they begin their investigation they find evidence of major cities. As they start to dig, they find artifacts of a past civilization, the most important being books and computers.”

What would these aliens learn about us when they spin the hard drives?
I envisioned two massively converged sources of data that would make up the hierarchy of wisdom. First was a huge database capturing all of human knowledge. My description (at end of blog) ended up being 99% accurate to what Wikipedia has become 10 years later.

My struggle was that this database, much like encyclopedias in book form, would be very structured, logical and unemotional. I used the example of “horses” – from the history, physiology, contribution to society, sporting use and dozens of other topics, the data would be complete – but yet, only half the story.

How do you complete the story of horses, and truly show the human condition?

Stories.


If you read an emotional story about an 8 year old girl dying of leukemia and her lifelong dream was to ride a pony, would your perspective change on horses? What about the pioneers travelling west in the early 19th century and the reliance on horses pulling wagons and making it over dangerous mountains and terrain?

If you were to correlate the factual history of horses with stories that paint the human condition – you will have moved from knowledge to wisdom. If you successfully tie millions of other topics with the relevant stories, the breakthrough happens.

This week something remarkable happened. We just don’t know it yet.

When Facebook surpassed 500 million users it made a small side announcement that it
created a tool called “Facebook Stories”. With millions of people re-connecting, getting married, breaking up, notifying family members that they are alive after natural disasters, to committing crimes and taunting police, it is safe to say that Facebook has made a mark.

Although over 90 percent of the world population has never logged in, it still holds critical mass and is a statistically reliable representation for the “haves” of the planet.

Stories lead to biographies

Another concept I would explore with people ten years ago is the idea of how short life is. A simple question of how well you know your parents as compared to your grandparents or great-grandparents. Some people know more the others, but it is safe to say that familiarity usually ceases within only a few generations – perhaps 50 years. You may remember your great-grandparents names, where they lived and a couple of other stats, but other than some passed-down stories, you probably don’t know how they felt about things.

What if you could read a series of blogs, a diary, an auto-biography, or anything that would paint a picture of your great-grandparents? Of course, more than just reading, it would include audio, video, pictures and text. Now that we have mapped the human genome, this may complete the mystery. Perhaps some psychological things in your life could be explained if you understood your past – a great-great-aunt may have experienced the exact same scenario and you can relate.

This is what future generations can expect from us. This blog may be read by my great-great-great-etc grandchildren hundreds of years in the future. My Facebook story, combined with lifestreaming, blogs, tweets and even LinkedIn will be accessible for all time.

I believe this will be important – I just can’t imagine how or why yet.

Perhaps with my genetic makeup being what it is, I can understand my lineage much deeper and avoid mistakes that were made in the past. This could also lead to a better sense of self. Furthermore, what about a time when millions of these stories are accessible, searchable, even actionable?

This could be an evolutionary step.

All of human knowledge combined with millions (if not billions) of stories in the future. The top down and bottoms up linkage is mesmerizing and powerful.
___________________________________________________________________________________

Now, here is the Hierarchy of Wisdom, first published in 1999…2 years before Wikipedia and 11 years before Facebook Stories:

The journey to achieve wisdom begins with the following rules:

1. All knowledge is organized into hierarchies. At the highest level you have:
1. Philosophy
2. History
3. Science
4. Humanities
(Detail Level at end)

2. All topics, regardless of complexity, must be explained on one page.

3. Using a 'click through' concept, subtopics in the hierarchy will be accessible from the top-level page. These subtopics will also fit on one page.

4. Using the same concept as the 'six degrees of separation', focus will be put on minimizing the amount of clicks through the hierarchy to reach information.

5. This project will be public domain.
The definition of wisdom for purposes of this project:

"The accumulation of all thought, belief and knowledge of all humans past, present and future".

At the core of philosophy is the pursuit of the answer to the question "Why?" Without involving religion or science, the answer to the question - and the meaning of life is, quite simply, to have impact on others. Having impact on others changes the world around us and creates eternal life through memories.

The most effective way to learn history is through biographies. Not just the people core to an event, but the thousands of individuals that impacted those people. Humans view things very differently and to truly build an understanding, one must be privy to these multiple views.

To ensure we guarantee eternal life for ourselves we can use the technology at our disposal to create a 'memory-base'. A knowledge hierarchy that links the top level topics with billions of biographies. A centralized geneology pool that links the human race, not only with each other, but with all knowledge.
The meaning of life, put forward as a derivative of this work is: "The impact a person has on others". The story of the corporate executive versus the person who starts digging a hole....which has a greater impact in the end?

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

The logical beginning to knowledge is philosophy. Before exploring the physical or living concepts of our world, a much deeper mental understanding is required. Philosophy is the oldest form of systematic, scholarly inquiry. It is the study of the truths or principles underlying all knowledge, being, and reality. The philosopher's tools are basically logical and speculative reasoning. Philosophy seeks to find fundamental, natural principles that could explain what individuals know and experience about the world around them. SOCRATES, at his trial, proclaimed a basic philosophical premise, that "the unexamined life was not worth living."

The basis for human knowledge is experience from the past. The study of history provides the most complete understanding of who we are. History is the study of ages and eras, civilizations and cultures. History provides a framework for religion and evolution, and a study of human nature. Some speculate that the study of the future is firmly planted in the knowledge and experience of the past.

Starting large or small, from the Big Bang theory to the Human Genome project, science is a key part of knowledge. Understanding Earth Sciences, including atmosphere, climates, geology, hydrology, geography, and elements. Understanding Life Sciences including humans, animals, plants and non-animal classifications. And finally the Physical Sciences including astronomy, chemistry, physics and matter.

Finally, connecting philosophy to history and to our physical world is the study of humanities. The humanities is a very large and diverse knowledge base consisting of religion, society, art, literature, leisure and business. From major studies in Psychology and Sociology to understanding our pets, this subject represents a key foundation to wisdom.

Detail level hierarchy:

1. Philosophy
Epistemology - theory of knowledge and truth
Metaphysics - theory of existence and essence
Logic - theory of argument and validity
Aesthetics - theory of beauty and taste
Analytic - theory of process of analysis and philosphic method
Cosmology - theory of origin and universe
Ethics - theory of good and utility
2. History
World history
Ancient history
Ages and Eras
History of the Americas
North America
South America
History of Europe
Western Europe
Middle East
History of Asia and Australia
History of Africa
3. Science
Earth Sciences
Geology
Geography
Minerals, metals, rocks and elements
Landscapes and seascapes
Atmosphere, climates and natural phenomena
Life Sciences
Biological principles
Viruses, monerans and protists
Algae and fungi
Plants
Invertebrates, mammals, birds, fish, reptiles and amphibians
Anatomy and physiology
Medicine
Environment
Agriculture
Physical Sciences
Astronomy
Chemistry
Matter
Physics
Mathematical Sciences
Ancient measures
Time, weight and measures
Pure mathematics
Arithmetic
Algebra
Calculus
Geometry
Analytical geometry
Differential geometry
Euclidean geometry
Non-euclidean geometry
Fractal geometry
Topology
Logic
Number theory
Integers
Prime numbers
Set theory
Trigonometry
Applied mathematics
Chaos theory
Computer science
Operations research
Probability
Statistics
Technology
Aeronautics
Building, construction and engineering
Communications and telecommunications
Computers
Electronics
Tools and machines
Transportation
Aircraft
Automobiles
Boats and navigation
Rail
Engines
Weapons and military technology
4. Humanities
Religion
Baha'ism (6M)
Buddhism (350M)
Theravada
Mahayana
Tibetan
Christianity (2B)
Anglican
Baptist
Church of Christ
Congregationalist
Lutheran
Methodist
Orthodox
Pentecostal
Presbyterian
Roman Catholic
Unitarian
United Church
Christian Scientists
Confucianism
Hinduism (750M)
Vishnu
Shiva
Shakti
Islam (1B)
Sunni
Shi-ah
Sufi
Ismaili
Jainism (4M)
Digambara
Swetabara
Jehovah's Witnesses
Judaism (19M)
Mormons
Scientology
Seventh-Day Adventists
Shintoism (3M)
Sikhism (20M)
Society of Friends/Quakers
Spiritualism
Taoism
Unification Church
Zoroastrianism
Satanic, Voodoo, Witchcraft and Wizardry (WICCA)
Mythology, magic, folklore and eschatology
The occult
Society and Societal Institutions
Anthropology
Castes and Classes
Domestic Life
Home
Family
Food
Clothing
Education and educational institutions
Government
Municipal
State or Provincial
Federal
Health and hospitals
Medical
Fitness and exercise
Law
Linguistics
Organizations
Publishing and the press
Military
Psychology
Cognition, reasoning and intuition
Personality and behaviour
Sex, love and romance
Strategy, intrigue and deception
Sociology
The human condition
Abuse
Disturbances
Crime
Violence
Death
Art and Literature
Fine arts
Painting
Sculpture
Literature
Performing arts
Music
Classical music
Popular music
Musical instruments
Dance
Theatre
Cinema
Television and radio
Applied arts
Architecture
Decorative arts
Graphic design and printing
Photography
Crafts
Leisure and Recreation
Holidays, celebrations and vacations
Entertainments and spectacles
Sports
Hunting and fishing
Gardening
Hobbies
Pets
Games, activities and toys
Alcohol and tabacco
Business and Economics
Accounting, banking and finance
Business studies
Corporations
Economics
Micro
Macro
Occupations
Industries
Insurance
Marketing and advertising
Money
Real estate
Retail and consumer studies

The PC is not dead! Don’t let facts get in the way of a good story.

Jay McBain, Director, Small and Medium Business, Lenovo Americas
July 20, 2010

It seems like once a year an article or blog gets posted re-igniting the debate on the future of computing devices. Because I often speak about the future of technology, the topic is of great interest to me.

Why don’t other industries have the same black/white mentality?

Mutual Funds are dead!
The car is dead – SUV’s will take over!
The toaster is dead!

Perhaps other mature industries, with more than 30 years of history, see changes as trends versus end results. To illustrate, yes, SUV sales have increased over the past 15 years, but is it really the end for cars? Absolutely not. Cars are growing geographically (China and other emerging markets), by style (coupe, sports, etc), by price point, by usage, by target market (eco friendly), and dozens of other ways.

Looking at some of the sources of the “PC is dead” mantra, it is usually a new technology that inspires the prediction:

Internet in 1994
Thin Clients in 1996
Smart phone in 2002
Virtualization in 2005
Cloud in 2007
Netbook in 2008
Slate in 2010

Interestingly, if you look at thin clients, virtualization, cloud computing, netbooks and slates, all very newsworthy and loaded with mountains of hype, none of them have taken over 11% of the end user demand in business and government spending.

What makes the PC so resilient?

Interestingly, many of the decisions that were made in Boca Raton , Florida in 1980 created the longevity of the platform. IBM deciding to use third parties for things like the processor, operating system, and BIOS in their first PC created a truly open, non-proprietary sand box. Other decisions like plenty of internal and external ports created a platform that would grow and evolve with the technology world around it.

No one in 1980 could predict the importance of connecting them together. In fact, networking didn’t become popular until years later. Things like high level gaming, multimedia, graphic arts, communication and social interaction were also significantly beyond the vision for the PC.

The PC has always been an open and configurable device, with a very low cost of entry for any organization to add value. Thus, its ability to evolve is core to its continued success.

It is the central device that you will continue to rely on as companion devices grow, such as smart phones, slates, WiFi toothbrushes, treadmills and thousands of other devices come to market.

Now, the facts:

The good news for VARs, Managed Service Providers and other HW resellers is the growth of the PC market has rebounded very quickly from the economic downturn. In fact, NPD just reported that US Distribution and Commercial Reseller categories increase both Notebook and Desktop almost 50% year over year.

Globally, IDC reported that PC growth last quarter was over 20% with strong results across the globe. This happened to be the first quarter of sales for the Apple iPad. This was a very similar story to the rapid growth of the Netbook two years ago – very little impact on PC categories.

What does this prove?

The facts are pointing to a new reality in computing. Users are looking for companion devices where they add value, but rely on the PC as their home base. Interestingly, to configure devices for the first time, whether it is a BlackBerry or iPad, requires a PC!

Pervasive computing is a concept where you will likely own 20 or more computer devices in the next 5 years. The PC appears to be the one central device that organizes , builds, and customizes content for these other companions.

Based on the past 15 years, trying to predict the next 15 is next to impossible. Knowing that computing will continue to build ubiquity and new and exciting usage scenarios are around the corner, the PC is well positioned to adapt and thrive.

Why do I need a WiFi enabled toothbrush?

I was amused last week when people were scoffing at a new WiFi enabled toothbrush. The concept relates directly back to a blog I wrote awhile back called “The 20 Computers you WILL own in 5 years”. I finished off the blog by saying 20 was an understatement and the number will likely be closer to 100.

Enter SmartToothbrushes.

The value proposition (if I can call it that) of a internet enabled toothbrush is simply to drive better personal hygiene in kids. We all know (or have been guilty of ourselves) that some children race through brushing their teeth and no amount of parental guidance about the dangers of plaque, false teeth by 30 or looking funny in front of friends seems to do the trick.

What if social media was the answer? Making brushing teeth the latest craze in Wii games! I know my brushing habits would have been better if I showed up to school the next day and was the subject of ridicule. It is a crazy concept, yes. Will it work? Perhaps.

Enter SmartTreadmill.

Another concept that probably has more chances of succeeding is SmartExercise. We all know that peer pressure drives behavior. Yes, in post-college adults too! If you have ever been in a Biggest Loser work competition, or joined a gym or team with a friend, we know that social pressure can deliver results.
Now you proceed to the treadmill and program a run. Do you virtually run around the neighborhood? Rome? Hawaii Iron Man?

Your choice.

First the treadmill posts on Facebook that you are starting a running “event” that others can join. The trash talk begins. Google Maps then kicks in with an actual route including elevation. The treadmill automatically adjusts height based on the actual route and you watch the houses fly by in “street view” mode on the display. After the run, Facebook posts your time, encourages others to run the exact same route (at any time in the future), and downloads it to their treadmill. With an avatar of you running to motivate of course. More trash talk.

The point is not to convince you that pervasive computing will be real. It will be. The point is what devices do we use in our daily lives that could get “smarter” with an internet connection and integration with your online personality?
Yes, there are privacy concerns and the concept of having technology ubiquitous in your life is unsettling for most people. However, the next generations are growing up with this reality and may not think twice about razzing a schoolmate about their flossing habits.

Enter SmartDental Floss…..

Counter-point: You won’t really own 20 computers in 5 years – you may only need one!

Jay McBain, Director Small and Medium Business, Lenovo

March 17, 2010

Being a part-time futurist, I attempt to predict events and apply probabilities to certain things happening. The one thing I didn’t predict was my blog about owning 20 computers in 5 years would create the frenzy it did. The comments received were literally all over the map, both ideological as well as geographic.

Many of the devices I talked about bordered on nonsensical. Who would ever consider a Smart-Jacket anyway? Then yesterday, The VAR Guy breaks a story about a wearable computing legend working secretly on prototypes for a major manufacturer. Perhaps the 5 year window I called out isn’t that far-fetched.

The contrarian view to pervasive computing has held that we will look to one (or very few) devices to deliver the world of content to us, regardless of time or place. This device would be very powerful, offer bolted-down security, and incorporate a blistering array of consumer electronics functionality. Think of every category at your nearest Retailer built into a device no larger than your wallet.

This device would integrate wirelessly with its surroundings. For example, it would communicate with your car and use its speakers as an extension to its own functionality. Same goes for your flat panel or even your desktop computer.

Here are some reasons this view of the future makes sense:

1. No need for integration or management of dozens of devices per person. Business or personal, less devices means less headaches.

2. Not reliant on the promise of the cloud. Local storage and applications have a strong legacy over the past 30 years and will the cloud still have a perception issue around security and performance in the future limiting its adoption?

3. No need for ubiquitous connectivity. The coming wave of 3G and WiMax offerings may not convince people that another $40 per month is worthwhile – especially in the new economic reality. Unless Telco companies will bundle with your home networking at the same price, people may look to fewer, smarter devices that do not rely on a 24/7 internet connection.

4. Easier to lock down security policy on one device. Users may not be comfortable with the personality “footprints” left on a multitude of devices. Think about the caches and cookies left over from your computing experience. Also, the cost and complexity of incorporating biometrics, encryption and other security features into dozens of devices could be daunting.

5. Extension to new usage scenarios. For example, a single device with localized processing and security would be ideal as a payment device at a store.

6. Mass-market appeal and economics. The competition to be this “one” device by manufacturers and component makers would drive down cost significantly, benefiting the consumer.

7. Industry standard interfaces. Without a plethora of technology representing different sizes, shapes and usage, there would be a lower education and training requirement. This could make technology less imposing on some and more accessible to others.

8. Focus on elegant design. The innovation around a single device would drive new levels of design excellence and engineering around quality and ruggedness. For example, being waterproof would be a great feature if this is your only connection to the online world.

A strong argument can be made for or against a future with Pervasive Computing. Some people will argue the middle – the devices that make sense to become smarter and internet aware will happen naturally over time. This is perhaps a more realistic argument and that having a smart toaster isn’t worth the extra dollars, energy and growing landfills full of obsolete ones.

What do you think? Will we have 20 or more computers connected all the time and providing seamless integration into our everyday lives, or will we stick to our current knitting, a Smartphone and a Notebook?

20 Computers you WILL own in the next 5 years

Jay McBain, Director Small and Medium Business, Lenovo

February 9, 2010

Would you recognize if you were at the beginning of a technological tipping point?

Welcome to 2010!

The convergence of ubiquitous connectivity and cloud computing has one simple and very exciting output: the explosion of hardware gadgets we will use to access it anywhere and anytime.

Don’t believe me?

Exhibit A: The evolution of the cell phone into an all-in-one multimedia, gaming, social media, content and business access device.

Exhibit B: The Netbook craze over the last 2 years convincing millions of users that an inexpensive secondary or tertiary device is useful given the right environment.

And finally,

Exhibit C: The feverish debate over the recent iPad announcement as well as the Smartbook and Hybrid categories that Lenovo introduced at CES in January.

Interestingly, most people focus the debate on how they use technology today. For example, why would I need a 10” slate when I have my iPhone, or why would I want an underpowered Netbook with a small screen when I have my full function Notebook for $100 more?

If you focus on how you will use technology in the future, the debate changes significantly. Most people generally agree that within 5-10 years, most things you plug in will have some level of internet connectivity. The question becomes, “where and how is the best way to access information in the future”. A good example is text messaging while driving. It would be hard to make the case that a smartphone or notebook computer are the optimal form factors in this environment.

The goal here is to simply lay out how we can more naturally use technology in everyday environments – perhaps increasing human interaction, productivity, and for the example above, safety.

Now for the 20 computing devices you WILL own within 5 years (in no particular order):

1. SmartClock Radio – an ideal form factor when laying in bed is a device that not only wakes you up but puts together a local news, weather, sports and business “5 min package” to start your day. You fully customize the content and it converts to audio. You can also prioritize important email notifications of what happened overnight.

2. SmartGPS – The devices in your car have got much smarter since their first monochrome ancestors. Helping you with traffic and finding gas stations by price are examples of recent innovations. Think of all the localization data that is uploaded into the satellites. Who will be the first to track all vehicle speeds real-time and predict the right route (as opposed to downloading manual data based on cameras). Even more interesting for those of you who are environmentally conscious, by tracking vehicle speeds all traffic light patterns will be predictable allowing you to time the drive perfectly into all green lights. By the way, there will be devices for every mode of transportation you have, optimized of course for ease of use, including motorcycles, bicycles, jetski’s, etc.

3. SmartFridge – This concept isn’t new, but with the advent of Windows 7 multi-touch and the rapid decline in panel price points over 2009, why wouldn’t you want a “home base” device on your fridge? The all-in-one desktop form factors are interesting, but most people don’t have the counter space to give up to keyboards and mice. Having a 22” Wide panel in the fridge will act as a viewer of all things important in your life. From social media updates, to weather, stock prices, important emails, to cameras and sensors in the fridge that order new products automatically as they are used.

4. SmartHome Server – These are available today and will act as the bridge between the cloud and your other 19 devices listed here. Whether downloading movies, or housing your eclectic MP3 collection, this server will provide fault tolerance and performance to drive the pervasive world. Within 5 years, the replication and fetching ability will be significantly improved and predicted behavior artificial intelligence will know your YouTube patterns and already have the data cached and ready to go. At $70 per TB and dropping, this will continue to explode.

5. SmartFishFinder – Taking a smartphone on a boat is a recipe for disaster as electronics and water aren’t a great mix. Lugging a Notebook is even a worse idea. The FishFinder is an ideal device for a few reasons. Beyond being waterproof, they already have a 5” or larger high resolution screen, and not to mention the audio capabilities. I am sure most people don’t want work disturbances while fishing, however the ability to Google the fish you just landed along with the entire Wikipedia history could be interesting. Getting realtime Doppler weather and sea conditions could be a lifesaver – literally.

6. SmartCar Radio – Back to the text messaging example. The car radio is already hooked into 4 or more high quality speakers and can bring customized, location aware information directly to you. When a message is received, it will recognize if you are stopped at a red light and project on the windshield in a HUD format or if driving will convert to audio and read to you. With voice recognition, you will read back a response and it will convert it back to the sender without you ever taking your eyes off the road. How about when you hear that favorite song and want it on your MP3 player? Done. For your passengers? They will all have viewing devices, either on the dash or in the back of headrests that hook into the car radio as the central CPU and wireless device.

7. SmartHealth Watch – It may not win on style points at the beginning, but the initial examples of watches that hold cell phone, GPS, heart rate, and other capabilities, will transform how we take care of ourselves. A watch that monitors your every step (literally) and uploads your heartrate information to your private Electronic Medical Record (EMR). An easy interface that records, either by multi-touch, audio or camera, everything you eat as well. Most people find this very intrusive and it will not go mass market until the privacy is guaranteed and perhaps you get a 75% discount from your medical insurance?

8. SmartSlate – This is the current debate I referenced above. Is there room for a “tweener” form factor between smartphone and Netbook that acts as an eReader, portable TV, game, or business multi-touch data entry device? With millions of applications coming that will be developed to take advantage of a 10” always connected device. The move away from the traditional clamshell Notebook form factor for secondary and tertiary devices makes sense.

9. SmartGuitar, SmartKeyboard and SmartDrums – An example of how musical instruments will be able to train a user with lights and audio/video guidance. The ability to be always connected will mean hundreds of thousands of songs ready to play (for a nominal fee I am sure). Being able to join a virtual band with players all over the world is when this concept starts to get really cool.

10. SmartRemote – Using the program guide while watching TV is cumbersome and interrupts others. Having a device that not only downloads show data, it supplements it with real-time user reviews, gossip, and previews. The ability to record and availability across all other 19 devices listed here will make this technology core in our entertainment plans.

11. SmartSurface / SmartPanels / SmartFurniture – Whether in the home, office, or in public places like restaurants and shopping centers, there will be multi-touch panels everywhere that vary in shape and size based on the environment. These devices will provide ubiquitous access to all cloud based data and allow users to quickly pull up their own designed portal. Imagine going to a restaurant that has a surface computer as a table. Conversations in the future will become very multimedia driven.

12. SmartCamera – The integration of camera’s into all devices (including most listed here) is inevitable. However, because of the size, weight, form factor, or usage of these devices, the traditional camera, with high quality lenses and purpose specific function, will continue to be an important device. Having pictures transferred directly to the cloud makes sense, as well as the ability to do photo editing and printing directly from the camera will benefit the photographer. The camera will have GPS as well as internet access to the local weather and automatically import optimal photo settings depending on where you are, the weather conditions, and time of day.

13. SmartTV – Represents one of the most inevitable form factors you will own. As signals are now digital, movies and media are downloadable, and entertainment continues the shift to on-demand, the TV will be an important collection and delivery device of content. Having an external set top box and BluRay player will become redundant and access to all of recorded and broadcast history will be available within a quick search. The storage will likely be in the SmartHome Server mentioned elsewhere, and the searching may be in the SmartRemote, but the content will be cached and delivered from the device. The SmartTV will also be extended to other devices, allowing you easily to send a movie up to the bedroom halfway through, or to the SmartPhone if you are going out.

14. Smartphone – This is a device that you likely already own and will continue to. It is a device that gives you pocket access to all data, and while not being the best at data entry or viewing, wins in outright mobility and battery life.

15. SmartNotebook – Another device that you likely own today and will continue to. The ability to create and consume content while being mobile will as important in the future as it is today. Notebooks will continue to evolve and cover a wide range of 8” to 22” form factors customized by the type of user.

16. SmartElderly / SmartKids / SmartPets – The ability to take care of an elderly parent, monitor the security and safety of a child, or simply track where your pet has run off to in the neighborhood will be important as connectivity options reduce in price. Today there are tag based options that are relatively limited in function. Tomorrow, with integration of connectivity and GPS, these devices will be able to proactively notify and alert if certain thresholds are violated. This is the OnStar button on a personal level. Having electronic medical records as well as detailed allergy and other information available in real-time will save lives and protect our loved ones.

17. SmartJacket – Not to be confused with straight-jacket! Clothing will continue to evolve to the point where some interesting technology can be woven in. How about solar receptors sewn right into the fabric that charges devices when placed into the pocket or wirelessly? How about a 6” screen on the cuff that acts as a viewing device when holding a smartphone is clumsy or ineffective? How about a belt or bottom cuff that has the equivalent of a 9 cell battery spread around to disperse weight and give you all day computing on the multitude of mobile devices I have outlined here? This can also be a SmartShoe as a form factor.

18. SmartGlasses – Whether you wear goggles for your occupation, while you’re out skiing, playing a video game, watching a 3D movie, or simply wearing sunglasses outside, this becomes the perfect device to deliver content. Examples exist today with opaque type projection allowing you to look “through” or “at” the screen. Wireless access to either a SmartPhone or any other pervasive device would bring personalized and secure information to the user. Computing ability can also be built right into the frame making this a standalone device for consuming data. This is likely the most natural way a person can consume information.

19. SmartHome - Much has been written about the smart home. With an alarm system, thermostat, and other appliances being internet-aware, the management of the house will become a reality from a remote location. Even if it is turning on lights in the morning, turning down the heat when the house senses no one home (as opposed to being timed), to monitoring electricity usage at every plug and presenting savings opportunities back to the homeowner, the future will be more cost efficient, green, and secure. Your security system will monitor all of these other pervasive devices you own, and be able to alert you if they are stolen and leave the perimeter that you define because of the GPS and communication capabilities. If everything you buy of value is now internet aware and has self reporting capabilities, is this the end of physical crime?

20. SmartGaming – While many (if not all) devices here will support gaming, the true experience needs a dedicated device with the horsepower and graphics capabilities to drive excitement. Future gaming will be holographic, allowing you to roam “inside” the game. Virtual reality will continue to evolve, allowing you and your avatar to travel the world, and experience things like spaceflight first hand. Games will also evolve away from structured levels and local storage and move into a connected world where the game progresses as the participants lead it. Advancing levels of predictive behavior and AI will blur the lines between reality and games.

I chose only 20 computers you will own to give a sample of where we are heading in the next 5-10 years. The reality is that most of us own more than 20 computers today. If you combed your house and counted all of the silicon and microchips, the number would be much higher. In fact, your car has more than 20 computers today. The reality is that we will own more than a 100 computers.

Another way to look at it is that every device that you plug into the wall or run on battery today has probably a couple of possible improvements if it was internet aware. This could include small appliances that have recipes built in, or a microwave that take a photo of the popcorn barcode, compares to internet and then cooks it for the perfect time based on the product and its own cooking capabilities.

We are only at the beginning of understanding the capabilities of those physical things around us as they get access to all of human knowledge.

This is my argument of why pervasive computing will be a reality. All-in-one type devices that try to do everything, tend to do nothing well. Single devices that are specialized for ease of use, cost, as well as laser focused on the task at hand (cooking popcorn) will win the day. The second argument is that when the next generation of microwave is invented with some major new whiz-bang technology, you don’t have to spend a thousand dollars to replace the all-in-one device, but simply just upgrade one function at a time.

Best of all worlds.