As Tesla rolls out the Robotaxi concept ("Cybercab" with no steering wheel or pedals) to six cities across the US, Elon Musk has publicly stated that, at scale, the cost will be 30 to 40 cents per mile.
--> The average car/truck/SUV in the US today runs closer to 70 cents to $1.10 per mile.
Making up these costs:
1. Depreciation. The decline in vehicle resale value over time which is largest single cost (29 cents per mile or 37.5% of total). Check out below for how these depreciation curves can differ significantly.
2. Fuel / Energy. Gasoline, diesel, or electricity per mile based on efficiency (MPG or MPGe). (13 cents per mile or 16.9% of total)
3. Insurance. Full-coverage premiums (liability, collision, comprehensive) that are required when financing (11 cents per mile or 14.6% of total). When you look at the steep depreciation of electric cars plus the more expensive insurance, this quickly surpasses any maintenance or fuel savings.
4. Routine Maintenance & Repairs. Scheduled services (oil, fluids, filters, brakes) and out-of-warranty mechanical repairs. (11 cents per mile or 14.3% of total). Looking at quality ratings per vehicle brand makes a big difference here.
5. Financing. Interest payments and loan/lease borrowing charges (excluding principal reduction). Average car loans are hovering around 6.4% on new cars or 11.4% on used cars. (8 cents per mile or 9.8% of total)
6. Taxes & Fees. Annual state registration, licensing, safety/emissions inspections, and prorated purchase sales taxes. (5 cents per mile or 7% of total)
7. Incidental Driving Costs. Tolls, parking, and car washes. (Variable but add up quickly in larger cities).
I made a prediction years ago (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dlqAriWls7s) that getting from point A to point B would shift from owned automobiles to "on demand" services within a generation.
Uber and Lyft significantly accelerated this trend and the future of fully autonomous, humanless fleet services would start to dominate the next few decades.
After fully autonomous vehicles take hold, the final accelerator will come in the form of infrastructure changes where governments designate exclusive lanes for self-driving cars - at twice the speed limit of regular lanes.
Oh, and how about safety?
Self-driving cars are 5X safer today than humans and get in 85 percent fewer injury crashes. These numbers will only improve as technology and infrastructure improve.
Sure, we may still want to have that old stick-shift convertible in the garage for nostalgic drives through the country on weekends, but with savings of two-thirds to three-quarters coming soon, it will be impossible to ignore the future shifts of driving.
--> The average car/truck/SUV in the US today runs closer to 70 cents to $1.10 per mile.
Making up these costs:
1. Depreciation. The decline in vehicle resale value over time which is largest single cost (29 cents per mile or 37.5% of total). Check out below for how these depreciation curves can differ significantly.
2. Fuel / Energy. Gasoline, diesel, or electricity per mile based on efficiency (MPG or MPGe). (13 cents per mile or 16.9% of total)
3. Insurance. Full-coverage premiums (liability, collision, comprehensive) that are required when financing (11 cents per mile or 14.6% of total). When you look at the steep depreciation of electric cars plus the more expensive insurance, this quickly surpasses any maintenance or fuel savings.
4. Routine Maintenance & Repairs. Scheduled services (oil, fluids, filters, brakes) and out-of-warranty mechanical repairs. (11 cents per mile or 14.3% of total). Looking at quality ratings per vehicle brand makes a big difference here.
5. Financing. Interest payments and loan/lease borrowing charges (excluding principal reduction). Average car loans are hovering around 6.4% on new cars or 11.4% on used cars. (8 cents per mile or 9.8% of total)
6. Taxes & Fees. Annual state registration, licensing, safety/emissions inspections, and prorated purchase sales taxes. (5 cents per mile or 7% of total)
7. Incidental Driving Costs. Tolls, parking, and car washes. (Variable but add up quickly in larger cities).
I made a prediction years ago (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dlqAriWls7s) that getting from point A to point B would shift from owned automobiles to "on demand" services within a generation.
Uber and Lyft significantly accelerated this trend and the future of fully autonomous, humanless fleet services would start to dominate the next few decades.
After fully autonomous vehicles take hold, the final accelerator will come in the form of infrastructure changes where governments designate exclusive lanes for self-driving cars - at twice the speed limit of regular lanes.
Oh, and how about safety?
Self-driving cars are 5X safer today than humans and get in 85 percent fewer injury crashes. These numbers will only improve as technology and infrastructure improve.
Sure, we may still want to have that old stick-shift convertible in the garage for nostalgic drives through the country on weekends, but with savings of two-thirds to three-quarters coming soon, it will be impossible to ignore the future shifts of driving.
